US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 50-Year History, Chart & Key Trends

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield is one of the most closely watched indicators in global financial markets. For Indian investors, its long-term history can help explain changes in global interest rates, capital flows, equity valuations, currency markets and investor risk appetite. Looking across the 50 completed calendar years from 1976 through 2025 shows a major journey from the very high-yield environment of the early 1980s to the exceptionally low yields seen around 2020 and the renewed rise after 2021.

This article uses the U.S. 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield series identified by the Federal Reserve Board and available through FRED as GS10. The historical chart below uses annual-average observations for 1976–2025. FRED describes GS10 as a monthly series based on averages of business days, with the underlying H.15 Treasury constant-maturity methodology.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 50-Year History Chart

The chart below provides a 50-year view of annual average 10-year U.S. Treasury yields. The relative bars are included only as a visual aid; the percentage figures are the important data points.

What Is the US 10-Year Treasury Yield?

The US 10-Year Treasury yield is the rate associated with US government bonds with 10-years until maturity. This isn’t a rate that is set by the Federal Reserve. The Fed sets a target on short-term rates and the market sets rates for all other maturities. Treasury yields are determined by various factors including inflation, economic growth and monetary policy.

The 10-year maturity is important because this maturity is used by the market to set longer term borrowing costs and determine values of other securities. The market is broad and moves can affect many different security markets outside of US government bonds.

What Does 50 Years of US 10-Year Treasury Yield History Show?

The historical series shows several distinct rate environments rather than one continuous trend. Yields rose sharply into the early 1980s, spent much of the following decades moving lower, reached unusually low levels after the global financial crisis and fell further during the pandemic period. They then increased substantially from 2021 as the global interest-rate environment changed.

• 1976–1981: Yields climbed from 7.61% to an annual average of 13.91% in 1981.

• 1982–1990: Yields remained high but generally moved down from the early-1980s peak.

• 1991–2000: The broad environment became more moderate, although yields continued to fluctuate with economic and inflation conditions.

• 2001–2008: The long-term direction was generally lower, with the annual average reaching 3.67% in 2008.

• 2009–2019: Yields remained comparatively low, with the 2012 annual average at 1.80%.

• 2020: The annual average fell to 0.89%, reflecting the exceptionally low-rate environment during the pandemic.

• 2021–2025: Yields rose again, reaching annual averages of 2.95% in 2022, 3.96% in 2023, 4.21% in 2024 and 4.26% in 2025.

When Was the US 10-Year Treasury Yield at Its Highest?

The highest annual average yield on the US 10-year Treasury note over the period 1976 to 2025 was 13.91% in 1981. The period from 1976 to 1981 is worthy of study to understand a very different interest rate environment relative to today as a result of the prevailing conditions of inflation and monetary policy at the time.

The fact that a historical yield peak occurred should not be interpreted to expect that yield will decline toward the previous peak. Yields will adjust to the inflation and economic conditions of the time, and the normalcy or target level for yields will also change.

When Was the US 10-Year Treasury Yield at Its Lowest?

The lowest annual average yield over the 50-year period from 1976 to 2025 was 0.89% in 2020. The economic and monetary policy conditions caused by the pandemic created an unusual environment in the market and high quality government bonds, especially in the United States, became extremely liquid and were in high global demand.

The information for 2020 is useful to consider the percentage-point increase in Treasury yields that occurred later. It also serves as a reminder that in an investor’s lifetime, conditions may exist for long-term bond yields to move through a number of different regimes.

What Explains the Drop in US Treasury Yields over Much of the Longer-Term Period?

There were no single, overriding causes to the long-term decline. Different periods were dominated by changes in inflation, economic growth, monetary policy, demand for government securities and expected future changes in interest rates. Depending on the prevailing inflation expectations and the conditions of monetary policy over the decades, investors’ required yields also changed.

It is more appropriate to analyze the 1976-2020 period as a series of differing economic cycles rather than assume that Treasury yields can only trend in one direction over the long-term.

Why Did US 10-Year Treasury Yields Rise After 2021?

A major change in the global interest-rate environment occurred after 2021. One of the main concerns in central banks’ focus shifted to inflation, hence a tighter monetary policy. Investors also re-evaluated their outlook for growth and inflation as well as future policy rate changes. Longer-term US Treasury yields can change for various reasons. These include the current monetary policy, expectations and compensation for the term risk.

The change was evident in the annual average yields as the 2020 level of 0.89% changed to 1.44% in 2021, and then to 2.95% in 2022, to 3.96% in 2023, to 4.21% in 2024 and to 4.26% in 2025.

US Treasury Yield vs Bond Price: What Is the Relationship?

Yield and price for fixed income securities have an inverse relationship. Market yield and fixed-income securities’ prices move in the opposite direction. When market yields increase, bond prices decline. Conversely, when market yields decrease, prices increase.

SEBI’s investor education materials explain interest rate risk and show that a rise in interest rates can impact bond prices in a negative manner. Similarly, a decrease in interest rates can impact prices in a positive manner. As a result, yield and price should not be looked at in unison.

A more localized explanation for bonds in India is available here.

Why Does the US 10-Year Treasury Yield Matter to Indian Investors?

The U.S. Treasury market is an important part of the global financial system. Changes in long-term U.S. yields can influence how international investors compare the expected return from U.S. assets with the return available in emerging markets such as India. The effect is not mechanical, but several channels are important.

• Global capital flows: Higher U.S. yields can make U.S. fixed-income assets relatively more competitive and may influence portfolio allocation.

• Equity valuations: Changes in global discount rates can affect the valuation investors assign to future corporate cash flows.

• Currency markets: Changes in U.S. yields can influence dollar demand and therefore interact with USD/INR and emerging-market currencies.

• Risk appetite: Large moves in global rates can change investor willingness to hold riskier assets.

• Indian bond markets: U.S. yields can influence global financial conditions, although Indian government bond yields are also driven by domestic inflation, RBI policy, liquidity, government borrowing and local demand.

Our India-focused guide on how US bond yields affect the Indian stock market explains these channels in greater detail.

Will a Rising US Treasury Yield Mean Indian Stocks Will Fall?

No. The rationale for the change is important. Rising yields caused by a growing economy can produce a different equity market response than rising yields caused by increased inflation expectations or tighter monetary policy.

Likewise, Indian markets have their own local factors that can offset or amplify the impact of global movements in yields. Some of these factors include corporate earnings, liquidity, the RBI policy and statement, inflation, valuations, crude oil prices, FPI flows and company specific news. As such, the 10-year US Treasury yield cannot be used in isolation to determine the buying or selling of stocks.

US Treasury Yields and Indian Equity Valuations

There are long-term global yields and then there are Indian equity valuations. When long-term global yields increase, equity market participants reassess the return they expect to get from equities. It can be quite relevant to companies that have long duration cash flows. However, the level of importance depends on market conditions, company and sector.

Investors evaluating individual Indian companies should therefore combine macro indicators with business fundamentals. Our fundamental analysis of stocks guide covers revenue, profit, ratios and valuation concepts that can be used alongside macroeconomic analysis.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield vs Indian Government Bond Yields

The US 10-Year Treasury yield reflects the conditions in the U.S. Treasury market. Indian government bond yields reflect multiple factors that include, but aren’t limited to, inflation expectations, RBI policies and actions, the government’s borrowing program, the state of the liquidity in the market, as well as demand and supply for government securities and other global factors.

As such, an increase in the US 10-year yield should not be read as a prediction for a rise in Indian government bond yields.

Investors interested in Indian fixed income can explore our bond investment resources for India-focused information on bond types, risks and investment considerations.

What Should Investors Watch Alongside US Treasury Yields?

1. Federal Reserve policy decisions and guidance.

2. U.S. inflation and employment data.

3. U.S. economic growth expectations.

4. USD/INR and broader dollar trends.

5. Indian government bond yields and RBI policy.

6. FPI flows into Indian equity and debt markets.

7. Crude oil prices and their potential effect on Indian inflation and the current account.

8. Corporate earnings and equity valuations.

Conclusion

The last 50 years have shown that 10-year Treasury yields have an incredible amount of volatility. Investors can learn a lot from the 1980s cycle of high yields to today’s low yields, and what happened after 2021.

What is most valuable to Indian investors is the context of yields and other factors at play in the economy, like inflation, growth, and interest rate policy, not the prediction of specific market movements. In more plain terms, Treasury yields are one of many factors to take into account when making an investment decision.

Historical Treasury yield data is most valuable when used for context. When looking at Indian fixed income data, consider everything, like how risky the investment is and how easy it is to liquidate the investment. Before investing, look at the remaining time to maturity of the investment, the credit quality of the issuer, and the applicable taxation.

Sources and Further Reading

For the historical series, refer to the FRED GS10 series and the Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates. For Treasury methodology, see the U.S. Treasury interest-rate data. For India-focused bond risk education, see SEBI Investor's bond education material.